Stat geeks to the rescue

Typically the highest-paying jobs attract the most talented workers. That's why Lebron James plays basketball instead of using his long arms to become the world's greatest window cleaner.

But the free market isn't perfect. For example, the NFL continues to attract coaches who regularly to make decisions that reduce their team's chances of winning.1

But there's good news for the future. When Bill Belichick decided not to punt from his own 28 with 2:08 left against the Colts on Nov. 15, he "may have unwittingly mobilized a movement," writes Luis Deloureiro of the New York Times.

That is, a movement to let statistics, not traditional conventions, inform coaching decisions. When old-school pundits criticized Belichick's decision, stat geeks came to the rescue.
  • A site called Advanced NFL Stats pointed out that Belichick's choice increased his team's chance of winning from 70 percent to 79 percent. (A subsequent post shot down critiques of the original stat geekery.)
  • Freakonomics author Steve Levitt said he'd induct Belichick into the Freaknomics Hall of Fame.
  • Someone built an entire site featuring a clever online calculator to decide whether Belichick made the right decision.
Are widespread changes in coaching decisions on the way?


1I should probably give some examples. Off the top of my head from games in the last few weeks: Andy Reid attempting a 52-yard FG when his team was down by seven points with no time outs and 4:37 left in the game on Nov. 8; Rex Ryan opting to hold onto his timeouts and let the Dolphins run the clock from 1:06 to 0:03 before Miami scored the winning TD on Oct. 15.

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